Understanding the Region - Economy and Society
The social determinants of health are strongly influenced and shaped by access to income, education and resources that women have access to. By understanding the drivers to our local economy, we gain insight into where our efforts will be needed in the medium to longer term; and also, where possible future investment from government and industry will be.
Growth and Change
Analysis of population data from the region tells us that the SMR is highly dynamic and diverse. As can be seen in Figure 1, growth and economic projections from local Councils further indicate that this change will not decline but rather, increase from approximately 1.573M residents in 2018 across all 10 LGAs to 2.103M in 2036 (State of Victoria, 2019). This is further highlighted by the current data released by Centre for Population in 2022 which demonstrates an overall decrease 1.29%, saying this there has been an overall 10-year population growth of 1.77%.
Within this region, the latest ABS data on regional population growth delivers the following highlights:
Between 2021 and 2041, the population for the City of Bayside is forecast to increase by 10,370 persons (10.13% growth), at an average annual change of 0.48%. The population estimate for the City of Bayside as of the 30th of June 2022 is 102,177. From 2021, the population has declined by 0.15%.
In 2021, the population density in the City of Bayside was 2,724.3 per square kilometre. This figure was higher compared to Greater Melbourne, which had a population density of 492.5 persons per square kilometre (the Greater Melbourne, however, does include very large areas of non-residential land). It is important to note that this varied across the Council area. Population density ranged from a low of 1,155.3 persons per square kilometre in Cheltenham to a high of 4,474.6 persons per square kilometre in Bay Street Activity Centre.
Between 2021 and 2041, the population for the City of Casey is forecast to increase by 181,890 persons (49.23% growth), at an average annual change of 2.02%. For instance, the 2022 Estimated Resident Population for the City of Casey is 378,831, with a population density of 925.8 persons per square km. From 2021, the population has grown by 2.51%.
In 2021, the population density in the City of Casey was 892.6 per square kilometre. This figure was higher compared to Greater Melbourne, which had a population density of 492.5 persons per square kilometre (the Greater Melbourne, however, does include very large areas of non-residential land). It is important to note that this varied across the Council area. Population density ranged from a low of 32.2 persons per square kilometre in Clyde Growth Area to a high of 3,687.0 persons per square kilometre in Cranbourne North (PSP).
Cardinia Shire is one of the fastest growing regions in Australia. Within the Casey South Region, Cranbourne East population increased by 7,300 people (21.3% increase from 2017 to 2018) consisting mainly of internal migration of 6,037 persons and 438 overseas migrants. Beaconsfield-Officer grew by 13.8% across 2017-2018 and from 2019 to 2020, the entire Cardinia Shire Region grew by 3.6% (additional 4,014 people).
Between 2021 and 2041, the population for Cardinia Shire is forecast to increase by 63,323 persons (52.99% growth), at an average annual change of 2.15%. The population estimate for Cardinia Shire as of the 30th of June 2022 is 123,104. Since 2021, the population has grown by 2.95%.
Between 2021 and 2041, the population for Frankston City is forecast to increase by 20,851 persons (14.81% growth), at an average annual change of 0.69%. The population estimate for Frankston City as of the 30th of June 2022 is 141,078. Since 2021, the population has grown by 0.18% Frankston City Estimated Resident Population for 2022 is 141,078, with a population density of 1,088 persons per square km.
In 2021, the population density in Frankston City was 1,073.6 per square kilometre. This figure was higher compared to Greater Melbourne, which had a population density of 492.5 persons per square kilometre (the Greater Melbourne, however, does include very large areas of non-residential land). It is important to note that this varied across the Council area. Population density ranged from a low of 153.4 persons per square kilometre in Langwarrin South to a high of 2,077.4 persons per square kilometre in Frankston Central.
Between 2021 and 2036, the population for the City of Glen Eira is forecast to increase by 25,704 persons (17.06% growth), at an average annual change of 0.79%. The City of Glen Eira Estimated Resident Population for 2022 is 151,694, with a population density of 3,923 persons per square km.
In 2021, the population density in the City of Glen Eira was 3,851.0 per square kilometre. This figure was higher compared to Greater Melbourne, which had a population density of 492.5 persons per square kilometre (the Greater Melbourne, however, does include very large areas of non-residential land). It is important to note that this varied across the Council area. Population density ranged from a low of 3,337.7 persons per square kilometre in Caulfield North - Caulfield East to a high of 5,506.1 persons per square kilometre in Glen Huntly.
In 2021 it was estimated that the City of Greater Dandenong had a population of 175,000 people.
The number of residents in Greater Dandenong has risen by 27,000 during the past two decades, and is forecast to grow by 28,000, to 203,000, during the next decade.
Between 2021 and 2041, the population for the City of Kingston is forecast to increase by 36,278 persons (22.74% growth), at an average annual change of 1.03%. The population estimate for the City of Kingston as of the 30th of June 2022 is 160,005. Since the previous year, the population has grown by 0.28%. The City of Kingston Estimated Resident Population for 2022 is 160,005, with a population density of 1,752 persons per square km.
In 2021, the population density in the City of Kingston was 1,731.7 per square kilometre. This figure was higher compared to Greater Melbourne, which had a population density of 492.5 persons per square kilometre (the Greater Melbourne, however, does include very large areas of non-residential land). It is important to note that this varied across the Council area. Population density ranged from a low of 90.8 persons per square kilometre in Yellow (Open Space) to a high of 4,646.3 persons per square kilometre in Cheltenham Activity Centre.
Between 2021 and 2036, the population for Mornington Peninsula Shire is forecast to increase by 10,748 persons (6.31% growth), at an average annual change of 0.31%. The population estimate for Mornington Peninsula Shire as of the 30th of June 2022 is 169,663. Since 2021, the population has declined by 0.46%. Mornington Peninsula Shire Estimated Resident Population for 2022 is 169,663, with a population density of 234.6 persons per square km.
In 2021, the population density in Mornington Peninsula Shire was 233.6 per square kilometre. This figure was lower compared to Greater Melbourne, which had a population density of 492.5 persons per square kilometre (the Greater Melbourne, however, does include very large areas of non-residential land). It is important to note that this varied across the Council area. Population density ranged from a low of 16.8 persons per square kilometre in Moorooduc - Tuerong to a high of 2,728.2 persons per square kilometre in West Park. In 2021, West Park had the highest population density in Mornington Peninsula Shire.
Between 2021 and 2041, the population for City of Port Phillip is forecast to increase by 63,813 persons (61.63% growth), at an average annual change of 2.43%. The population estimate for the City of Port Phillip as of the 30th of June 2022 is 103,990. Since 2021, the population has grown by 0.53%. City of Port Phillip Estimated Resident Population for 2022 is 103,990, with a population density of 5,052 persons per square km.
In 2021, the population density in City of Port Phillip was 4,952.1 per square kilometre. This figure was higher compared to Greater Melbourne, which had a population density of 492.5 persons per square kilometre (the Greater Melbourne, however, does include very large areas of non-residential land). It is important to note that this varied across the Council area. Population density ranged from a low of 777.6 persons per square kilometre in Fishermans Bend to a high of 16,591.3 persons per square kilometre in Domain.
Between 2021 and 2036, the population for the City of Stonnington is forecast to increase by 31,441 persons (29.58% growth), at an average annual change of 1.30%. The population estimate for the City of Stonnington as of the 30th of June 2022 is 106,418. Since the previous year, the population has grown by 0.21%.
In 2021, the population density in the City of Stonnington was 4,084.6 per square kilometre. This figure was higher compared to Greater Melbourne, which had a population density of 492.5 persons per square kilometre (the Greater Melbourne, however, does include very large areas of non-residential land). It is important to note that this varied across the Council area. Population density ranged from a low of 1,683.4 persons per square kilometre in Kooyong to a high of 10,665.2 persons per square kilometre in Chapel Vision Study Area.