Trends and Forecasts

Trends and Forecasts

The social determinants of health are strongly influenced and shaped by the access to income, education and resources that women have access to. By understanding the drivers to our local economy we gain insight into where our efforts will be needed in the medium to longer term, and also, where possible future investment from government and industry will be.

Growth and Change

Analysis of population data from the region tells us that the South Metro area is highly dynamic and diverse. Growth and economic projections from Local Councils further indicate that this change will not decline but, rather increase from approximately 1.527M estimated residents across all 10 LGAs to 1.878M in 20311.

Within this region, the latest ABS data on regional population growth (3218.0 – Regional Population Growth, Australia, 2016-17) delivers the following highlight:
  • Within the Casey South Region, Cranbourne East population increased by 27.4% consisting mainly internal migration of some 6200 persons and just over 450 overseas migrants
  • Within the Cardinia Shire region, Beaconsfield-Officer grew by 13.4% across 2016-2017
  • Within the Greater City of Dandenong, Dandenong itself had the greatest net overseas migration with some 1034 people arriving compared to Pearcedale-Tooradin (within Casey-South) having 10 overseas migrants arrive. By way of comparison, Dandenong saw some 780 residents leave the area through internal migration.
  • In terms of population density, in 2017 Flinders in the Mornington Peninsula had around 19 persons per kilometre of land with the Noble Park West within the City of Greater Dandenong having some 4179 people located per kilometre.

Employment Education and Business

The South Metro region comprises a vast diversity and range of businesses and, workplace settings.


In terms of distribution of businesses type, the region’s biggest business type is construction followed by professional, scientific and technical services, followed by real estate, financial and insurance and then health care and social assistance.

These businesses employed some 678,043 people. Of this the greatest employer in the region is Health Care and Social Assistance followed by the Retail Industry then Professional and Technical Services, Construction and Manufacturing. However what is most important to note is the variability across the region of employment2.



  1. Victoria in Future 2016: Population and household Projections to 2051, The state of Victoria, Environment, Land, Water and Planning, 2016[]
  2. ABS 2019, 8165.0 Counts of Australian Business to June 2018[]